Ulytau vs Atyrau: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Metallurg, Zhezqazghan
The Footlab model makes Ulytau the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Atyrau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ulytau vs Atyrau?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Ulytau (1,479) and Atyrau (1,459).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ulytau have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Atyrau have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kaspiy(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Astana(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Irtysh(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Zhenys(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Okzhetpes(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Aktobe(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Zhetysu(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Ulytau win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Atyrau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Atyrau 0-0 Ulytau | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Ulytau 1-5 Atyrau | Premier League |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Atyrau 0-1 Ulytau | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ulytau score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Atyrau score 0.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulytau | 0.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Atyrau | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ulytau sit 7th in Premier League (28 points from 22 matches) and Atyrau sit 12th (20 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ulytau | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 28 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ulytau vs Atyrau?
- The Footlab model makes Ulytau the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Atyrau.
- Where and when is Ulytau vs Atyrau played?
- Ulytau vs Atyrau is played on November 1, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Metallurg, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.