Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Flora Tallinn the favourite at 79%, against 15% for a draw and 6% for Trans Narva. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva?
Flora Tallinn starts as the favourite with a 251-point Elo edge (1,714 vs 1,463).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flora Tallinn have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Trans Narva have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vaprus(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 2-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Inter Club d'Escaldes(home) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Inter Club d'Escaldes(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paide(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kompanii Marjamaa(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nõmme United(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Flora Tallinn win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Trans Narva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Trans Narva 0-3 Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| May 5, 2026 | Flora Tallinn 1-0 Trans Narva | Cup |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Flora Tallinn 6-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Flora Tallinn 4-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Trans Narva 1-1 Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Trans Narva 1-2 Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Flora Tallinn score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Trans Narva score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora Tallinn | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Trans Narva | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Flora Tallinn sit 3rd in Meistriliiga (42 points from 22 matches) and Trans Narva sit 10th (17 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 22 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 25 | 42 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 55 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva?
- The Footlab model makes Flora Tallinn the favourite at 79%, against 15% for a draw and 6% for Trans Narva.
- Where and when is Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva played?
- Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva is played on November 1, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at A. Le Coq Arena, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.