Vaprus vs Paide: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Pärnu Rannastaadion, Pärnu
The Footlab AI model makes Vaprus the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Paide. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vaprus wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vaprus vs Paide?
On Elo ratings, Vaprus has 1,547 points and Paide 1,699.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vaprus vs Paide
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vaprus
3-4-1-2- 8T. Pajo
- 10S. Viidas
- 20H. Välja
- 90J. Sild
- 24Mathias Villota
- 14R. Orm
- 42M. Limberg
- 28M. Lipp
- 15K. Aloe
- 43M. Seppik
- 16O. Nõmm
Paide
4-3-3- 77D. Luts
- 14M. Jobarteh
- 29D. Darboe
- 6Daniel Cabral
- 10M. Miller
- 28O. Hõim
- 3Victor Hugo dos Santos de Sá
- 2M. Lilander
- 4Pedro Andrade Drozina
- 27N. Baranov
- 12M. Meerits
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vaprus have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Paide have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 2-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 2-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 2-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Nõmme United(away) | 3-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Vaprus(home) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Vaprus wins, 0 draws, 4 Paide wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Paide 2-0 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Paide 3-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| May 6, 2026 | Paide 2-0 Vaprus | Cup |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Vaprus 3-2 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Paide 3-0 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Vaprus 1-0 Paide | Meistriliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
Vaprus score 1.8 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Paide score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Paide | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vaprus sit 7th in Meistriliiga (36 points from 31 matches) and Paide sit 3rd (51 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Paide | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 51 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 61 | 36 |
A question about Vaprus vs Paide?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vaprus vs Paide?
- The Footlab AI model makes Vaprus the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Paide.
- Where and when is Vaprus vs Paide played?
- Vaprus vs Paide is played on October 31, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Pärnu Rannastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.