Fluminense vs Coritiba: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Fluminense the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Coritiba. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Fluminense starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,900 vs 1,794).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Fluminense vs Coritiba
The starting elevens officially announced for this match.
Fluminense
4-2-3-1- 7Hulk
- 90K. Serna
- 10PH Ganso
- 11J. Savarino
- 8Martinelli
- 35Hércules
- 13Guilherme Arana
- 29J. Millán
- 3Thiago Silva
- 23Guga
- 1Fábio
Known absences
A. CanobbioOut · Suspended (yellow cards)
AlissonOut · Hip injury
G. CanoOut · Hamstring injury- John KennedyOut · Knee injury
- Matheus ReisOut · Knee injury
- NonatoOut · Suspended (yellow cards)
Coritiba
5-3-2- 32Pedro Rocha
- 77Breno Lopes
- 19S. Gómez
- 5N. Fonseca
- 10Josué
- 6Felipe Jonatan
- 26Bruno Melo
- 55Jacy
- 21Thiago Santos
- 14F. Bustos
- 22Pedro Rangel
Known absences
- B. OcampoOut · Ankle injury
- KenoOut · Knee injury
- Lucas RonierOut · Knee injury
- TingaOut · Muscle injury
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fluminense have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Coritiba have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Platense(home) | 2-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 0-5 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Remo(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fluminense wins, 2 draws, 2 Coritiba wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Fluminense 2-1 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Jul 24, 2023 | Coritiba 2-0 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Fluminense 5-2 Coritiba | Serie A |
| May 1, 2022 | Coritiba 3-2 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Jan 20, 2021 | Coritiba 3-3 Fluminense | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Coritiba vs Fluminense on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fluminense score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Coritiba score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Coritiba | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fluminense sit 5th in Serie A (48 points from 28 matches) and Coritiba sit 9th (38 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | 48 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | 38 |
A question about Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fluminense vs Coritiba?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fluminense the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Coritiba.
- Where and when is Fluminense vs Coritiba played?
- Fluminense vs Coritiba is played on October 9, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.