Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab model makes Vitoria the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Chapecoense-sc. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
Vitoria starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,968 vs 1,830).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Chapecoense-sc have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 4-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coritiba(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 0-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Vitoria win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Chapecoense-sc win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Chapecoense-sc 3-1 Vitoria | Serie B |
| Jul 24, 2023 | Vitoria 1-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| Jan 17, 2021 | Vitoria 0-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| Oct 17, 2020 | Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Vitoria | Serie B |
| Oct 14, 2018 | Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vitoria score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chapecoense-sc score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Chapecoense-sc | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitoria sit 12th in Serie A (29 points from 24 matches) and Chapecoense-sc sit 20th (11 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vitoria | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 35 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
- The Footlab model makes Vitoria the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Chapecoense-sc.
- Where and when is Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc played?
- Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc is played on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Manoel Barradas, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.