Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Sao Paulo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Cruzeiro (2,038) and Sao Paulo (1,941).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruzeiro have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Sao Paulo have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bolívar(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cruzeiro win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Sao Paulo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Sao Paulo 4-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Sao Paulo 1-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Cruzeiro 1-1 Sao Paulo | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Cruzeiro 0-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Sao Paulo 2-0 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Cruzeiro score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sao Paulo score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Sao Paulo | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruzeiro sit 5th in Serie A (39 points from 24 matches) and Sao Paulo sit 13th (27 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 39 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
- The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Sao Paulo.
- Where and when is Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo played?
- Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo is played on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.