Fountain Gate vs Geita Gold: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Liti Stadium, Singida
The Footlab model makes Fountain Gate the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Geita Gold. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fountain Gate vs Geita Gold?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Fountain Gate (1,483) and Geita Gold (1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fountain Gate have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Geita Gold have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 0-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 4-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 6-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 28, 2024 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 25, 2024 | Fountain Gate(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Fountain Gate win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Geita Gold win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2024 | Fountain Gate 2-1 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Geita Gold 1-0 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Fountain Gate 2-1 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 21, 2022 | Geita Gold 1-1 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Fountain Gate vs Geita Gold on May 25, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Fountain Gate score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Geita Gold score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain Gate | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Geita Gold | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fountain Gate sit 10th in Ligi kuu Bara (3 points from 3 matches) and Geita Gold sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Geita Gold | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Fountain Gate | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fountain Gate vs Geita Gold?
- The Footlab model makes Fountain Gate the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Geita Gold.
- Where and when is Fountain Gate vs Geita Gold played?
- Fountain Gate vs Geita Gold is played on December 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Liti Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.