Polisi Tanzania vs Simba: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, Morogoro
The Footlab AI model makes Simba the favourite at 72%, against 19% for a draw and 9% for Polisi Tanzania. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polisi Tanzania vs Simba?
Simba is a heavy favourite: 1,997 Elo points against 1,528, a 469-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Polisi Tanzania vs Simba
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Polisi Tanzania
Not enough data to predict the Polisi Tanzania lineup.
Simba
4-3-3- 7L. Gueye
- 34E. Mpanzu
- 29Ibrahim Doumbia
- 35N. Maema
- 17C. Chama
- 18M. Abraham
- 23R. De Reuck
- 26N. Chilambo
- 20A. Oura
- 39Abdoul Rafiu Kassali
- 28H. Abel
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polisi Tanzania have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Simba have 13, 2 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Mashujaa(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Mbeya City(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Coastal Union(home) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 2-4 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 6-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Young Africans(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Azam(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Be Forward Wanderers(home) | 6-1 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Be Forward Wanderers(away) | 1-0 | CAF Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Polisi Tanzania wins, 1 draw, 5 Simba wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2023 | Simba 6-1 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 1-3 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 0-0 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 27, 2021 | Simba 1-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2021 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 9, 2020 | Simba 2-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Simba vs Polisi Tanzania on Jun 6, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Polisi Tanzania score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Simba score 2.1 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Simba | 2.1 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polisi Tanzania sit 7th in Ligi kuu Bara (10 points from 7 matches) and Simba sit 1st (24 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
A question about Polisi Tanzania vs Simba?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polisi Tanzania vs Simba?
- The Footlab AI model makes Simba the favourite at 72%, against 19% for a draw and 9% for Polisi Tanzania.
- Where and when is Polisi Tanzania vs Simba played?
- Polisi Tanzania vs Simba is played on December 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.