Polisi Tanzania vs Simba: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, Morogoro
The Footlab model makes Simba the favourite at 55%, against 29% for a draw and 17% for Polisi Tanzania. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polisi Tanzania vs Simba?
Simba is a heavy favourite: 1,922 Elo points against 1,490 — a 432-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polisi Tanzania have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Simba have 13, 2 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Azam(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Azam(away) | 0-8 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 6, 2023 | Simba(away) | 1-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 2-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Jamus(away) | 0-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Polisi Tanzania win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Simba win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2023 | Simba 6-1 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 1-3 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 0-0 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 27, 2021 | Simba 1-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2021 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 9, 2020 | Simba 2-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Simba vs Polisi Tanzania on Jun 6, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Polisi Tanzania score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Simba score 1.8 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania | 0.9 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Simba | 1.8 | 0.3 | 10 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polisi Tanzania sit 7th in Ligi kuu Bara (4 points from 2 matches) and Simba sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polisi Tanzania vs Simba?
- The Footlab model makes Simba the favourite at 55%, against 29% for a draw and 17% for Polisi Tanzania.
- Where and when is Polisi Tanzania vs Simba played?
- Polisi Tanzania vs Simba is played on December 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.