Kagera Sugar vs Pamba Jiji: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
The Footlab AI model makes Pamba Jiji the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pamba Jiji wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,805 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagera Sugar vs Pamba Jiji?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Kagera Sugar (1,508) and Pamba Jiji (1,541).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kagera Sugar vs Pamba Jiji
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kagera Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Kagera Sugar lineup.
Pamba Jiji
4-3-3- 21S. Karabaka
- 20S. Oyugi Siwa
- 54H. Msabila
- 26J. Ochieng
- 42I. Diomande
- 40F. Kundo
- 25Abdalla Salum Kheri
- 2A. Machupa
- 32A. Said
- 3I. Abraham
- 18E. Johola
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 11:28 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagera Sugar have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Pamba Jiji have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 3-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fountain Gate(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Mashujaa(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Fountain Gate(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Geita Gold(home) | 4-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 1-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 5, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(away) | 0-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Young Africans(away) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Kagera Sugar win, 1 draw, 0 Pamba Jiji wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 2-1 Pamba Jiji | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Pamba Jiji 1-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Pamba Jiji on Mar 7, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kagera Sugar score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pamba Jiji score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Pamba Jiji | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagera Sugar sit 14th in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 8 matches) and Pamba Jiji sit 15th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 6 |
| 15 | Pamba Jiji | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Kagera Sugar vs Pamba Jiji?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagera Sugar vs Pamba Jiji?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pamba Jiji the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Kagera Sugar vs Pamba Jiji played?
- Kagera Sugar vs Pamba Jiji is played on December 29, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Kaitaba Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.