Coastal Union vs Mbeya City: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 31, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Mkwakwani Stadium, Tanga
The Footlab AI model makes Coastal Union the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Mbeya City. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,833 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Coastal Union vs Mbeya City?
On Elo ratings, Coastal Union has 1,621 points and Mbeya City 1,543.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Coastal Union vs Mbeya City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Coastal Union
4-3-3- 25S. Kichuya
- 36M. Andrea
- 9M. M. Maabad
- 13K. Gradi
- 16G. Manyasi
- 8C. Mkandala
- 26R. Aidan
- 4A. Laurent
- 24S. Chuku
- 5A. A. Msangi
- 18C. Ramadhani
Mbeya City
4-3-3- 22V. Mayanga
- 10E. Ambokile
- 49O. Mwajanga
- 20H. Haji
- 32O. Abdallah
- 21J. Mwanuke
- 14Nassor Mbarouk
- 4K. Pillar
- 26A. Buha
- 60B. Maranyingi
- 31T. Reuben
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 07:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Coastal Union have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Mbeya City have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 12, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Azam(away) | 0-4 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 18, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 1-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Tabora United(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Coastal Union wins, 1 draw, 0 Mbeya City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Mbeya City 0-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Coastal Union 2-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Coastal Union 1-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Mbeya City 2-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 24, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-1 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 24, 2021 | Coastal Union 3-2 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Mbeya City vs Coastal Union on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Coastal Union score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mbeya City score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Union | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Mbeya City | 0.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Coastal Union sit 7th in Ligi kuu Bara (13 points from 10 matches) and Mbeya City sit 11th (10 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Coastal Union | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Mbeya City | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 10 |
A question about Coastal Union vs Mbeya City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Coastal Union vs Mbeya City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Coastal Union the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Mbeya City.
- Where and when is Coastal Union vs Mbeya City played?
- Coastal Union vs Mbeya City is played on December 31, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Mkwakwani Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.