Coastal Union vs Mbeya City: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 31, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Mkwakwani Stadium, Tanga
The Footlab model makes Coastal Union the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Mbeya City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Coastal Union vs Mbeya City?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Coastal Union (1,541) and Mbeya City (1,506).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Coastal Union have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Mbeya City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Young Africans(away) | 1-4 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Geita Gold(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Coastal Union win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Mbeya City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Mbeya City 0-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Coastal Union 2-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Coastal Union 1-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Mbeya City 2-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 24, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-1 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 24, 2021 | Coastal Union 3-2 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Mbeya City vs Coastal Union on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Coastal Union score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mbeya City score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Union | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Mbeya City | 0.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Coastal Union sit 14th in Ligi kuu Bara (1 points from 3 matches) and Mbeya City sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mbeya City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Coastal Union | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Coastal Union vs Mbeya City?
- The Footlab model makes Coastal Union the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Mbeya City.
- Where and when is Coastal Union vs Mbeya City played?
- Coastal Union vs Mbeya City is played on December 31, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Mkwakwani Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.