Fountain Gate vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 30Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Liti Stadium, Singida
The Footlab AI model makes Fountain Gate the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fountain Gate wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,443 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fountain Gate vs Kagera Sugar?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Fountain Gate (1,486) and Kagera Sugar (1,492).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fountain Gate vs Kagera Sugar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fountain Gate
4-3-3- 22S. Said
- 20A. Athuman
- 27Hashimu Kindemile
- 9C. Obasi
- 60S. Mgunda
- 67M. Balama
- 15D. Mukombozi
- 6O. Awara
- 29J. Shiga
- 19A. Mtambi
- 18I. Parapanda
Kagera Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Kagera Sugar lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fountain Gate have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Young Africans(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Mbeya City(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 3-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fountain Gate(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Mashujaa(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fountain Gate wins, 1 draw, 3 Kagera Sugar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Kagera Sugar 1-1 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 14, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 3-0 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Fountain Gate 3-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 28, 2024 | Fountain Gate 2-3 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 12, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 1-0 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 17, 2023 | Fountain Gate 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Fountain Gate on Sep 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fountain Gate score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain Gate | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fountain Gate sit 16th in Ligi kuu Bara (4 points from 7 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 14th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Fountain Gate vs Kagera Sugar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fountain Gate vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fountain Gate the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Fountain Gate vs Kagera Sugar played?
- Fountain Gate vs Kagera Sugar is played on May 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Liti Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.