Fratria vs Nesebar: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Albena-1, Albena
The Footlab AI model makes Fratria the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Nesebar. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,546 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fratria vs Nesebar?
On Elo ratings, Fratria has 1,691 points and Nesebar 1,661.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fratria vs Nesebar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fratria
4-3-3- 22G. Atanasov
- 7D. Aleksandrov
- 17B. Kandoussi
- 15M. Marinov
- 10T. Korablin
- 23S. Dyulgerov
- 44R. Stefanov
- 11V. Boev
- 14V. Valkov
- 13A. Isuf
- 69I. Iliev
Nesebar
4-3-3- 77S. Statev
- 99Kristiyan Parashkevov
- 11Daniel Cabanelas
- 8Viktor Kunev
- 22R. Ismailov
- 10V. Dotsev
- 14Dimitar Balinov
- 3D. Lastardzhiev
- 5P. Dimov
- 21S. Pergelov
- 13Martin Sheytanov
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 11:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fratria have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Nesebar have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(away) | 0-2 | Second League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Balkan Botevgrad(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Spartak Pleven(home) | 3-0 | Second League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pirin Blagoevgrad(away) | 2-1 | Second League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ludogorets II(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | CSKA Sofia II(home) | 0-0 | Second League |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Rodopa Smolyan(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 0-2 | Second League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Beroe(home) | 4-3 | Second League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Fratria wins, 1 draw, 1 Nesebar win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | Nesebar 3-1 Fratria | Second League |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Fratria 2-0 Nesebar | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Fratria 1-0 Nesebar | Second League |
| Jul 3, 2024 | Nesebar 2-2 Fratria | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Fratria score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Nesebar score 2.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratria | 1.5 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Nesebar | 2.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fratria sit 4th in Second League (22 points from 12 matches) and Nesebar sit 7th (18 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 22 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
A question about Fratria vs Nesebar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fratria vs Nesebar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fratria the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Nesebar.
- Where and when is Fratria vs Nesebar played?
- Fratria vs Nesebar is played on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Albena-1, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- May 22, 2027Etar Veliko TarnovovsDobrudzha
- May 22, 2027Ludogorets IIvsYantra 2019
- May 22, 2027CSKA Sofia IIvsLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
- May 22, 2027Spartak PlevenvsSportist Svoge
- May 22, 2027MontanavsPirin Blagoevgrad
- May 22, 2027Hebar 1918vsRilski Sportist
- May 22, 2027VihrenvsBeroe
- May 22, 2027Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvsMarek