Fulham vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Craven Cottage, London
The Footlab model makes Fulham the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fulham vs Newcastle?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Fulham (2,129) and Newcastle (2,152).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fulham have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Newcastle have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Farense(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fulham win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Newcastle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Fulham 2-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Newcastle 2-1 Fulham | League Cup |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Newcastle 2-1 Fulham | Premier League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Newcastle 1-2 Fulham | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Fulham 3-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Fulham 0-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Fulham score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fulham vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab model makes Fulham the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Fulham vs Newcastle played?
- Fulham vs Newcastle is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Craven Cottage, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.