Gamo Chencha vs Negelle Arsi: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on March 10, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 48%, against 34% for a draw and 18% for Gamo Chencha. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,598 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gamo Chencha vs Negelle Arsi?
Negelle Arsi starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,584 vs 1,443).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gamo Chencha vs Negelle Arsi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gamo Chencha
Not enough data to predict the Gamo Chencha lineup.
Negelle Arsi
Not enough data to predict the Negelle Arsi lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 05:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 4 matches in all competitions, Gamo Chencha have 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats; Negelle Arsi have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Awassa Kenema(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Mekelakeya(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ethiopian Medhin(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Sheger Ketema(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Adama Kenema(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Ethiopia Bunna(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Mebrat Hayl(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kedus Giorgis(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Gamo Chencha score 0.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 4; Negelle Arsi score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 24% probability of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gamo Chencha | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1 | 1/4 | 1/4 |
| Negelle Arsi | 1.1 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 4 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gamo Chencha sit 18th in Premier League (1 point from 4 matches) and Negelle Arsi sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Negelle Arsi | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
A question about Gamo Chencha vs Negelle Arsi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gamo Chencha vs Negelle Arsi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 48%, against 34% for a draw and 18% for Gamo Chencha.
- Where and when is Gamo Chencha vs Negelle Arsi played?
- Gamo Chencha vs Negelle Arsi is played on March 10, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 24% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 10, 2027Awassa KenemavsSheger Ketema
- Mar 10, 2027MekelakeyavsWelwalo Adigrat Uni
- Mar 10, 2027Sidama BunnavsAdama Kenema
- Mar 10, 2027Welayta DichavsEthiopia Bunna
- Mar 10, 2027Ethiopia Nigd BankvsFasil Ketema
- Mar 10, 2027Hadiya HosaenavsKedus Giorgis
- Mar 10, 2027Ethiopian MedhinvsBahardar
- Mar 10, 2027Halaba KetemavsMebrat Hayl