Gareji vs Samtredia: prediction and stats
Erovnuli Liga 2Regular Season - 34Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Samtredia the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Gareji. The most likely score is 1-1. If Samtredia wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,446 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gareji vs Samtredia?
On Elo ratings, Gareji has 1,526 points and Samtredia 1,547.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gareji vs Samtredia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gareji
4-3-3- 17L. Kalandadze
- 29B. Gugberidze
- 14I. Tchikaidze
- 4L. Tolordava
- 10T. Babunadze
- 11D. Aidarashvili
- 26Z. Eradze
- 24G. Samadashvili
- 15T. Kapanadze
- 5G. Nikolaishvili
- 12G. Bediashvili
Samtredia
4-3-3- 10J. Cordero
- 20O. Gagnidze
- 11T. Odikadze
- 7G. Manjgaladze
- 37D. Gvasalia
- 31L. Tsulaia
- 16D. Dobranskyi
- 33G. Latsabidze
- 15G. Kveladze
- 19T. Jangidze
- 12V. Lazarevs
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gareji have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Samtredia have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Odishi 1919(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Shturmi(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Gori(home) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Samtredia(away) | 1-6 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sioni(home) | 3-3 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sioni(home) | 3-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Rustavi(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Merani Martvili(home) | 5-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(away) | 0-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gareji(home) | 6-1 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Gareji wins, 0 draws, 2 Samtredia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Samtredia 6-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| May 30, 2026 | Gareji 3-2 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Samtredia 0-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Gareji 5-0 Samtredia | David Kipiani Cup |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Gareji 3-1 Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga |
| Dec 6, 2023 | Samtredia 4-1 Gareji | Erovnuli Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Gareji score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Samtredia score 2.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gareji | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Samtredia | 2.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gareji sit 1st in Erovnuli Liga 2 (50 points from 28 matches) and Samtredia sit 4th (40 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 29 | 50 |
| 4 | Samtredia | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 51 | 40 | 40 |
A question about Gareji vs Samtredia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gareji vs Samtredia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Samtredia the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Gareji.
- Where and when is Gareji vs Samtredia played?
- Gareji vs Samtredia is played on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC), in the Erovnuli Liga 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.