Gavorrano vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Romeo Malservisi, Bagno di Gavorrano
The Footlab model makes Gavorrano the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gavorrano vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Gavorrano (1,643) and Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano (1,637).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gavorrano have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Camaiore(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| May 3, 2026 | Tau Altopascio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Scandicci(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Orvietana Calcio(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sporting Trestina(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Grosseto(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gavorrano win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 6-2 Gavorrano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Gavorrano 0-2 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Gavorrano 0-2 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 2-5 Gavorrano | Serie D - Girone E |
| May 5, 2024 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0-1 Gavorrano | Serie D - Girone E |
| Dec 20, 2023 | Gavorrano 2-2 Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | Serie D - Girone E |
Last archived meeting: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Gavorrano on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gavorrano score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavorrano | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gavorrano sit 14th in Serie D - Girone E (37 points from 34 matches) and Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano sit 11th (40 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 44 | 40 |
| 14 | Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 49 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gavorrano vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano?
- The Footlab model makes Gavorrano the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano.
- Where and when is Gavorrano vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano played?
- Gavorrano vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Romeo Malservisi, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.