Where and when is Lucchese vs Progresso played?

Lucchese vs Progresso is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Porta Elisa, in the Serie D - Girone E.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Lucchese vs Progresso: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Porta Elisa, Lucca

Lucchese

Progresso

The Footlab model makes Lucchese the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lucchese vs Progresso?

A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Lucchese (1,736) and Progresso (1,682).

Lucchese win46 %

Draw28 %

Progresso win25 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lucchese have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Progresso have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lucchese
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 17, 2025	Sestri Levante(home)	1-0	Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs
May 10, 2025	Sestri Levante(away)	1-2	Serie C - Relegation - Play-offs
Apr 27, 2025	Torres(home)	3-2	Serie C - Girone B
Apr 23, 2025	Arezzo(away)	1-4	Serie C - Girone B
Apr 13, 2025	Vis Pesaro(home)	1-0	Serie C - Girone B

Progresso
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Sasso Marconi Zola(home)	4-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 26, 2026	Sant'Angelo(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 19, 2026	Lentigione(away)	2-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 12, 2026	Correggese(home)	1-1	Serie D - Girone D
Apr 2, 2026	Tuttocuoio(away)	2-0	Serie D - Girone D

How many goals should we expect?

Lucchese score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Lucchese	1.7	1.6	4	11/15	9/15
Progresso	1.0	1.3	3	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lucchese vs Progresso?: The Footlab model makes Lucchese the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Progresso.
Where and when is Lucchese vs Progresso played?: Lucchese vs Progresso is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Porta Elisa, in the Serie D - Girone E.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.