Gefle IF vs Järfälla: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 21Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Gavlevallen, Gävle
The Footlab model makes Gefle IF the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Järfälla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gefle IF vs Järfälla?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Gefle IF (1,549) and Järfälla (1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gefle IF have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Järfälla have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Assyriska FF(away) | 2-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Umeå FC(home) | 2-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stocksund(away) | 0-5 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Piteå(away) | 2-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Stocksund(home) | 2-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sollentuna(away) | 1-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | IF Karlstad(home) | 1-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(home) | 0-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Umeå FC(away) | 3-1 | Ettan - Norra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Gefle IF win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Järfälla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Järfälla 4-0 Gefle IF | Ettan - Norra |
How many goals should we expect?
Gefle IF score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Järfälla score 1.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gefle IF | 1.0 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Järfälla | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gefle IF sit 11th in Ettan - Norra (23 points from 18 matches) and Järfälla sit 14th (15 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Gefle IF | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 35 | 23 |
| 14 | Järfälla | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 39 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gefle IF vs Järfälla?
- The Footlab model makes Gefle IF the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Järfälla.
- Where and when is Gefle IF vs Järfälla played?
- Gefle IF vs Järfälla is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Gavlevallen, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.