Juticalpa vs Lobos Upnfm: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 5Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Juan Ramón Brevé Vargas, Juticalpa
The Footlab model makes Lobos Upnfm the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Juticalpa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Juticalpa vs Lobos Upnfm?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Juticalpa (1,421) and Lobos Upnfm (1,499).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Juticalpa have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Lobos Upnfm have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estrella Roja(away) | 2-5 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Olancho(away) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CD Olimpia(home) | 1-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | CD Motagua(home) | 0-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CD Motagua(away) | 1-4 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estrella Roja(home) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Olancho(home) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 3, 2026 | CD Olimpia(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| May 1, 2026 | CD Motagua(home) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Juticalpa win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Lobos Upnfm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Juticalpa 1-0 Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm 3-2 Juticalpa | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Lobos Upnfm 1-0 Juticalpa | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Juticalpa 0-2 Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Lobos Upnfm 1-0 Juticalpa | Liga Nacional |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Juticalpa 1-0 Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Juticalpa vs Lobos Upnfm on Apr 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Juticalpa score 0.9 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Lobos Upnfm score 0.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juticalpa | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Lobos Upnfm | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Juticalpa sit 12th in Liga Nacional (0 points from 4 matches) and Lobos Upnfm sit 10th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lobos Upnfm | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Juticalpa vs Lobos Upnfm?
- The Footlab model makes Lobos Upnfm the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Juticalpa.
- Where and when is Juticalpa vs Lobos Upnfm played?
- Juticalpa vs Lobos Upnfm is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Ramón Brevé Vargas, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.