Estrella Roja vs CD Olimpia: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 5Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Cocodrilos Sports Park
The Footlab model makes CD Olimpia the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Estrella Roja. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrella Roja vs CD Olimpia?
CD Olimpia is a heavy favourite: 1,831 Elo points against 1,483 — a 348-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrella Roja have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; CD Olimpia have 11, 0 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juticalpa(home) | 5-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(away) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CD Motagua(away) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Olancho(home) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Dec 9, 2012 | Guatire(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Alianza FC(away) | 3-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CD Motagua(home) | 3-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Juticalpa(away) | 3-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 6, 2026 | UMECIT(away) | 2-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
How many goals should we expect?
Estrella Roja score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; CD Olimpia score 2.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrella Roja | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| CD Olimpia | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrella Roja sit 3rd in Liga Nacional (7 points from 4 matches) and CD Olimpia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Estrella Roja | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrella Roja vs CD Olimpia?
- The Footlab model makes CD Olimpia the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Estrella Roja.
- Where and when is Estrella Roja vs CD Olimpia played?
- Estrella Roja vs CD Olimpia is played on August 30, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Cocodrilos Sports Park, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.