Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 5Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 11:15 PM (UTC)Estadio Francisco Morazán, San Pedro Sula
The Footlab model makes Real Espana the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Atlético Choloma. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma?
Real Espana starts as the favourite with a 251-point Elo edge (1,714 vs 1,463).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Espana have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Atlético Choloma have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico Independiente(home) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Génesis(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Platense FC(away) | 3-0 | Liga Nacional |
| May 19, 2026 | CD Marathon(home) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| May 13, 2026 | CD Olimpia(away) | 2-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Platense FC(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CD Marathon(home) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Atletico Independiente(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Génesis(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| May 1, 2026 | CD Marathon(away) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Real Espana win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Atlético Choloma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Atlético Choloma 3-2 Real Espana | Liga Nacional |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Real Espana 2-1 Atlético Choloma | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Real Espana 3-0 Atlético Choloma | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Atlético Choloma 0-3 Real Espana | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 3, 2013 | Real Espana 2-1 Atlético Choloma | Liga Nacional |
| Jan 20, 2013 | Atlético Choloma 2-2 Real Espana | Liga Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Atlético Choloma vs Real Espana on Apr 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Espana score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Choloma score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Espana | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Atlético Choloma | 1.3 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Espana sit 2nd in Liga Nacional (7 points from 3 matches) and Atlético Choloma sit 9th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Espana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Choloma | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma?
- The Footlab model makes Real Espana the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Atlético Choloma.
- Where and when is Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma played?
- Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma is played on August 30, 2026 at 11:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio Francisco Morazán, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.