Génesis vs Estrella Roja: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 10Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Roberto Suazo Córdova, La Paz
The Footlab AI model makes Génesis the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Estrella Roja. The most likely score is 1-1. If Génesis wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Génesis vs Estrella Roja?
Génesis starts as the favourite with a 185-point Elo edge (1,643 vs 1,458).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Génesis vs Estrella Roja
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Génesis
4-3-3- 9E. Alderete
- 24C. Fonseca
- 11B. Felix
- 15E. Maldonado
- 33Daniel Melendez
- 17D. Nunez
- 44M. Gamboa
- 12Gabriel Araújo
- 2A. Vargas
- 27J. Figueroa
- 31R. A. Balanta
Estrella Roja
Not enough data to predict the Estrella Roja lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Génesis have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Estrella Roja have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | CD Olimpia(home) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Olancho(home) | 0-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 13, 2026 | CD Motagua(away) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Juticalpa(away) | 3-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 29, 2026 | CD Marathon(home) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Espana(home) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlético Choloma(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Platense FC(home) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 6, 2026 | CD Marathon(away) | 0-5 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 30, 2026 | CD Olimpia(home) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
How many goals should we expect?
Génesis score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Estrella Roja score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Génesis | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Estrella Roja | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Génesis sit 6th in Liga Nacional (11 points from 9 matches) and Estrella Roja sit 8th (9 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 9 |
A question about Génesis vs Estrella Roja?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Génesis vs Estrella Roja?
- The Footlab AI model makes Génesis the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Estrella Roja.
- Where and when is Génesis vs Estrella Roja played?
- Génesis vs Estrella Roja is played on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Roberto Suazo Córdova, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.