Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Luik
The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Standard Liege. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise starts as the favourite with a 250-point Elo edge (2,190 vs 1,940).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Standard Liege have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Union St. Gilloise have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(home) | 2-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | KV Mechelen(away) | 3-3 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cercle Brugge(home) | 2-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Viktoria Köln(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(home) | 0-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 5-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(away) | 1-1 | Super Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Standard Liege win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Union St. Gilloise win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Standard Liege 1-1 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Standard Liege 0-0 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2023 | Standard Liege 0-1 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Standard Liege score 1.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Union St. Gilloise score 2.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Standard Liege sit 6th in Jupiler Pro League (5 points from 3 matches) and Union St. Gilloise sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Standard Liege | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise?
- The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Standard Liege.
- Where and when is Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise played?
- Standard Liege vs Union St. Gilloise is played on December 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.