Germany U20 vs Italy U20: prediction and stats
U20 Elite LeagueGroup StageKick-off on September 29, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Olympiastadion Berlin, Berlin
The Footlab model makes Germany U20 the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Italy U20. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Germany U20 vs Italy U20?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Germany U20 (1,642) and Italy U20 (1,593).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Germany U20 have 11 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Italy U20 have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Poland U20(away) | 1-0 | U20 Elite League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Czechia U20(home) | 2-1 | U20 Elite League |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Italy U20(home) | 5-0 | U20 Elite League |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Romania U20(home) | 6-0 | U20 Elite League |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Portugal U20(away) | 0-1 | U20 Elite League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | England U20(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Germany U20(away) | 0-5 | U20 Elite League |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Portugal U20(home) | 1-2 | U20 Elite League |
| Oct 9, 2025 | United States U20(away) | 0-3 | World Cup - U20 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Argentina U20(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - U20 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Germany U20 win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Italy U20 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | Germany U20 5-0 Italy U20 | U20 Elite League |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Germany U20 4-0 Italy U20 | U20 Elite League |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Italy U20 0-3 Germany U20 | U20 Elite League |
| Sep 7, 2023 | Germany U20 1-1 Italy U20 | U20 Elite League |
| Mar 27, 2023 | Italy U20 1-1 Germany U20 | U20 Elite League |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Italy U20 1-1 Germany U20 | U20 Elite League |
Last archived meeting: Germany U20 vs Italy U20 on Nov 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Germany U20 score 2.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Italy U20 score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany U20 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Italy U20 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Germany U20 vs Italy U20?
- The Footlab model makes Germany U20 the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Italy U20.
- Where and when is Germany U20 vs Italy U20 played?
- Germany U20 vs Italy U20 is played on September 29, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Olympiastadion Berlin, in the U20 Elite League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.