Gernika vs Amorebieta: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Urbieta, Gernika-Lumo
The Footlab AI model makes Gernika the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Amorebieta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gernika wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gernika vs Amorebieta?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Gernika (1,813) and Amorebieta (1,842).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gernika vs Amorebieta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gernika
Not enough data to predict the Gernika lineup.
Amorebieta
Not enough data to predict the Amorebieta lineup.
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gernika have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Amorebieta have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Coruxo(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Bergantiños(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Ourense CF(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Racing Santander II(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bergantiños(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arosa(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Gernika wins, 0 draws, 0 Amorebieta wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Amorebieta 1-2 Gernika | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Gernika 1-0 Amorebieta | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Aug 18, 2022 | Gernika 1-0 Amorebieta | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Amorebieta vs Gernika on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gernika score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Amorebieta score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gernika | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Amorebieta | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gernika sit 6th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (8 points from 5 matches) and Amorebieta sit 8th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gernika | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Amorebieta | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
A question about Gernika vs Amorebieta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gernika vs Amorebieta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gernika the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Amorebieta.
- Where and when is Gernika vs Amorebieta played?
- Gernika vs Amorebieta is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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