Where and when is Gernika vs Amorebieta played?

Gernika vs Amorebieta is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Gernika vs Amorebieta: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Urbieta, Gernika-Lumo

Gernika

Amorebieta

The Footlab model makes Amorebieta the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Gernika vs Amorebieta?

A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Gernika (1,836) and Amorebieta (1,895).

Gernika win32 %

Draw30 %

Amorebieta win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gernika have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Amorebieta have 6, 6 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Gernika
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Deportivo Alavés II(home)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Basconia(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 18, 2026	Tudelano(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 11, 2026	Amorebieta(away)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 4, 2026	Utebo(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Amorebieta
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Athletic Club II(home)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	Mutilvera(away)	2-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Sestao River(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 18, 2026	Real Unión(away)	3-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 11, 2026	Gernika(home)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Gernika win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Amorebieta win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 11, 2026	Amorebieta 1-2 Gernika	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Oct 11, 2025	Gernika 1-0 Amorebieta	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Aug 18, 2022	Gernika 1-0 Amorebieta	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Amorebieta vs Gernika on Apr 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Gernika score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Amorebieta score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Gernika	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15
Amorebieta	1.2	0.8	8	6/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Gernika vs Amorebieta?: The Footlab model makes Amorebieta the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Gernika.
Where and when is Gernika vs Amorebieta played?: Gernika vs Amorebieta is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.