Where and when is Ourense CF vs Gernika played?

Ourense CF vs Gernika is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Ourense CF vs Gernika: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio O Couto, Ourense

Ourense CF

Gernika

The Footlab model makes Ourense CF the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ourense CF vs Gernika?

A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Ourense CF (1,906) and Gernika (1,836).

Ourense CF win49 %

Draw26 %

Gernika win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ourense CF have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Gernika have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ourense CF
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Lugo(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Pontevedra(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Tenerife(home)	2-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	CF Talavera(away)	0-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 10, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(home)	2-4	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Gernika
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Deportivo Alavés II(home)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Basconia(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 18, 2026	Tudelano(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 11, 2026	Amorebieta(away)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 4, 2026	Utebo(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

How many goals should we expect?

Ourense CF score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gernika score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Ourense CF	1.1	1.3	4	9/15	7/15
Gernika	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ourense CF vs Gernika?: The Footlab model makes Ourense CF the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Gernika.
Where and when is Ourense CF vs Gernika played?: Ourense CF vs Gernika is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.