GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Arena Katowice, Katowice
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for GKS Katowice. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (2,140 vs 2,009).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GKS Katowice have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Lech Poznan have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wisla Plock(home) | 5-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Motor Lublin(away) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 GKS Katowice win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Lech Poznan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Lech Poznan 3-3 GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 5, 2025 | GKS Katowice 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| May 18, 2025 | GKS Katowice 2-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Lech Poznan 2-0 GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Lech Poznan vs GKS Katowice on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GKS Katowice score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GKS Katowice sit 8th in Ekstraklasa (6 points from 4 matches) and Lech Poznan sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for GKS Katowice.
- Where and when is GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan played?
- GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Katowice, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 21, 2026Wisla PlockvsLegia Warszawa
- Nov 21, 2026Zaglebie LubinvsGornik Zabrze
- Nov 21, 2026Pogon SzczecinvsSlask Wroclaw
- Nov 21, 2026Piast GliwicevsKorona Kielce
- Nov 21, 2026Cracovia KrakowvsJagiellonia
- Nov 21, 2026Raków CzęstochowavsWidzew Łódź
- Nov 21, 2026Radomiak RadomvsWisla Krakow
- Nov 21, 2026Wieczysta KrakówvsMotor Lublin