GOR Mahia vs Tusker: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Tusker. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 3,334 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GOR Mahia vs Tusker?
GOR Mahia starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (1,682 vs 1,542).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for GOR Mahia vs Tusker
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
GOR Mahia
4-3-3- 40C. Ochieng Oduor
- 30S. Kapen
- 22B. Ochieng
- 6E. Morrison
- 10A. Otieno
- 26P. Otieno
- 2G. Ochieng
- 5Alphonce Omija
- 15S. Owino
- 19Shariff Sirengo
- 35K. Omondi Onyango
Tusker
Not enough data to predict the Tusker lineup.
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 03:13 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GOR Mahia have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Tusker have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(home) | 4-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pyramids FC(away) | 1-5 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Pyramids FC(home) | 0-2 | CAF Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 0-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(home) | 1-0 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(away) | 2-2 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 GOR Mahia wins, 1 draw, 2 Tusker wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Tusker 1-0 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | GOR Mahia 1-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | GOR Mahia 0-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Tusker 2-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GOR Mahia 1-0 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Tusker 0-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
GOR Mahia score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tusker score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOR Mahia | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Tusker | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GOR Mahia sit 1st in FKF Premier League (6 points from 2 matches) and Tusker sit 8th (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
A question about GOR Mahia vs Tusker?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GOR Mahia vs Tusker?
- The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Tusker.
- Where and when is GOR Mahia vs Tusker played?
- GOR Mahia vs Tusker is played on December 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.