Shabana vs GOR Mahia: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Raila Odinga Homa Bay Stadium, Homa Bay
The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 47%, against 32% for a draw and 21% for Shabana. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 3,392 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shabana vs GOR Mahia?
GOR Mahia starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,682 vs 1,523).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Shabana vs GOR Mahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Shabana
Not enough data to predict the Shabana lineup.
GOR Mahia
4-3-3- 40C. Ochieng Oduor
- 30S. Kapen
- 22B. Ochieng
- 6E. Morrison
- 10A. Otieno
- 26P. Otieno
- 2G. Ochieng
- 5Alphonce Omija
- 15S. Owino
- 19Shariff Sirengo
- 35K. Omondi Onyango
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 03:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shabana have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; GOR Mahia have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nairobi United(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | KCB(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Bidco United(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(home) | 4-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pyramids FC(away) | 1-5 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Pyramids FC(home) | 0-2 | CAF Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Shabana wins, 2 draws, 4 GOR Mahia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | GOR Mahia 2-1 Shabana | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Shabana 0-0 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| May 4, 2025 | Shabana 0-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 11, 2024 | GOR Mahia 1-1 Shabana | FKF Premier League |
| May 11, 2024 | GOR Mahia 1-0 Shabana | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Shabana 0-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Shabana score 0.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; GOR Mahia score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabana | 0.6 | 0.8 | 8 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| GOR Mahia | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shabana sit 5th in FKF Premier League (4 points from 2 matches) and GOR Mahia sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
A question about Shabana vs GOR Mahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shabana vs GOR Mahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 47%, against 32% for a draw and 21% for Shabana.
- Where and when is Shabana vs GOR Mahia played?
- Shabana vs GOR Mahia is played on December 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Raila Odinga Homa Bay Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.