Tusker vs Murang'a SEAL: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Ruaraka Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Tusker the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Murang'a SEAL. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tusker wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,630 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tusker vs Murang'a SEAL?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Tusker (1,550) and Murang'a SEAL (1,470).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tusker vs Murang'a SEAL
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tusker
Not enough data to predict the Tusker lineup.
Murang'a SEAL
Not enough data to predict the Murang'a SEAL lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 07:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tusker have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Murang'a SEAL have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Mara Sugar(home) | 3-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 1-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 0-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Nairobi United(home) | 3-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | 3K(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 5-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 2-4 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Tusker wins, 0 draws, 1 Murang'a SEAL win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Tusker 1-0 Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Murang'a SEAL 0-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2025 | Tusker 2-0 Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Murang'a SEAL 1-3 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| May 12, 2024 | Tusker 2-1 Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Murang'a SEAL 2-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Tusker vs Murang'a SEAL on Feb 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tusker score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Murang'a SEAL score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tusker | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Murang'a SEAL | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tusker sit 7th in FKF Premier League (6 points from 3 matches) and Murang'a SEAL sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Murang'a SEAL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| 7 | Tusker | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
A question about Tusker vs Murang'a SEAL?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tusker vs Murang'a SEAL?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tusker the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Murang'a SEAL.
- Where and when is Tusker vs Murang'a SEAL played?
- Tusker vs Murang'a SEAL is played on December 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Ruaraka Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.