Mathare United vs Police: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 42%, against 34% for a draw and 24% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 0-0. If Police wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs Police?
Police starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (1,599 vs 1,442).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mathare United vs Police
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 07:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Police have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | KCB(away) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Migori Youth(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Nairobi United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mathare United win, 1 draw, 4 Police wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Mathare United 0-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Police 1-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Mathare United 1-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Police 2-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| May 14, 2023 | Police 1-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Mathare United 0-5 Police | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs Police on Apr 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Police score 1.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Police | 1.0 | 0.5 | 8 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mathare United sit 13th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 2 matches) and Police sit 9th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Police | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Mathare United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
A question about Mathare United vs Police?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs Police?
- The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 42%, against 34% for a draw and 24% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs Police played?
- Mathare United vs Police is played on December 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.