Mathare United vs Police: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 42%, against 33% for a draw and 25% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs Police?
Police starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,602 vs 1,452).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Police have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Nairobi United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 0-0 | Shield Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mathare United win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Police win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Mathare United 0-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Police 1-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Mathare United 1-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Police 2-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| May 14, 2023 | Police 1-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Mathare United 0-5 Police | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs Police on Apr 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Police score 0.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Police | 0.9 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mathare United sit 14th in FKF Premier League (41 points from 34 matches) and Police sit 3rd (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Police | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 31 | 21 | 55 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 35 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs Police?
- The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 42%, against 33% for a draw and 25% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs Police played?
- Mathare United vs Police is played on December 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.