Grad vs Tolmin: prediction and stats
CupRound of 32Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion NK Grad, Grad
The Footlab AI model makes Tolmin the favourite at 66%, against 17% for a draw and 17% for Grad. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grad vs Tolmin?
On Elo ratings, Grad has 1,459 points and Tolmin 1,503.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Grad vs Tolmin
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Grad
4-3-3- JJ. Kerec
- NN. Bernjak
- MM. Lanjšček
- MM. Kolmanko
- TT. Marič
- AA. Vrhovski
- NN. Stošić
- LL. Žnidarič
- SS. Celec
- RR. Potočnik
- TT. Cipot
Tolmin
Not enough data to predict the Tolmin lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 7 matches in all competitions, Grad have 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats; Tolmin have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2024 | Gančani(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Čarda Martjanci(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Serdica(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Radgona(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Sep 14, 2022 | Ljutomer(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Zidgrad Idrija(away) | 0-2 | 3. SNL - West |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Svoboda(home) | 2-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Rudar Trbovlje(home) | 5-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Izola(home) | 0-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Žiri(away) | 4-2 | 3. SNL - West |
How many goals should we expect?
Grad score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 7; Tolmin score 2.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 82% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grad | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 3/7 | 3/7 |
| Tolmin | 2.4 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 7 matches in all competitions.
A question about Grad vs Tolmin?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grad vs Tolmin?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tolmin the favourite at 66%, against 17% for a draw and 17% for Grad.
- Where and when is Grad vs Tolmin played?
- Grad vs Tolmin is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion NK Grad, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 82% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.