Grama vs Atlètic Lleida: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma, Santa Coloma de Gramenet
The Footlab model makes Grama the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Atlètic Lleida. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grama vs Atlètic Lleida?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Grama (1,828) and Atlètic Lleida (1,803).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grama have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Atlètic Lleida have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manresa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Vilassar Mar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mollerussa(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | San Cristóbal(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Cornellà(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Manresa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Reddis(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barbastro(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Andratx(away) | 0-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barcelona B(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Grama win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Atlètic Lleida win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | Grama 1-1 Atlètic Lleida | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Atlètic Lleida 2-1 Grama | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Grama vs Atlètic Lleida on Jan 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Grama score 1.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atlètic Lleida score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grama | 1.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Atlètic Lleida | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Grama | 34 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 49 | 35 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grama vs Atlètic Lleida?
- The Footlab model makes Grama the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Atlètic Lleida.
- Where and when is Grama vs Atlètic Lleida played?
- Grama vs Atlètic Lleida is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.