Montañesa vs Vilassar Mar: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris, Barcelona
The Footlab model makes Montañesa the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Vilassar Mar. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montañesa vs Vilassar Mar?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Montañesa (1,710) and Vilassar Mar (1,688).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montañesa have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Vilassar Mar have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Peralada(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 3, 2026 | Vic(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | L'Hospitalet(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Manresa(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Europa II(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Grama(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 3, 2026 | Tona(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Lleida Esportiu(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vilanova(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | L'Escala(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Montañesa win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Vilassar Mar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Vilassar Mar 0-1 Montañesa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Montañesa 2-2 Vilassar Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 10, 2025 | Montañesa 4-0 Vilassar Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Vilassar Mar 0-0 Montañesa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Vilassar Mar 2-1 Montañesa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Montañesa 1-0 Vilassar Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Vilassar Mar vs Montañesa on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Montañesa score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vilassar Mar score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montañesa | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Vilassar Mar | 0.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montañesa sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 (42 points from 34 matches) and Vilassar Mar sit 13th (39 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Montañesa | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 31 | 39 | 42 |
| 13 | Vilassar Mar | 34 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 36 | 38 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montañesa vs Vilassar Mar?
- The Footlab model makes Montañesa the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Vilassar Mar.
- Where and when is Montañesa vs Vilassar Mar played?
- Montañesa vs Vilassar Mar is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.