Match

Gremio vs Cruzeiro: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul

GremioCruzeiro

The Footlab AI model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Gremio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cruzeiro wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Gremio vs Cruzeiro?

Cruzeiro starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,921 vs 1,807).

30%26%44%
Gremio winDrawCruzeiro win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Gremio vs Cruzeiro

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Gremio

4-1-4-1
  1. 95Carlos Vinícius
  1. 20M. Villasanti
  2. 7C. Pavón
  3. 9F. Amuzu
  4. 8E. Noriega
  5. 15Danilo Barbosa
  1. 82Wallace
  2. 18João Pedro
  3. 38Caio Paulista
  4. 4W. Kannemann
  1. 1Weverton

Cruzeiro

4-2-3-1
  1. 19Kaio Jorge
  1. 10Matheus Pereira
  2. 8Gerson
  3. 29L. Romero
  4. 99K. Arroyo
  5. 9Bruno Rodrigues
  1. 43João Marcelo
  2. 27G. Rojas
  3. 34Jonathan
  4. 23Fágner
  1. 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 09:41 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gremio have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Cruzeiro have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Gremio
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 7, 2026Remo(away)1-1Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Palmeiras(home)0-0Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Botafogo(away)2-3Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Vasco DA Gama(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 7, 2026Vitoria(away)0-1Serie A
Cruzeiro
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 8, 2026Sao Paulo(home)2-0Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Vitoria(away)3-1Serie A
Sep 13, 2026Santos(away)1-2Serie A
Sep 6, 2026Atletico Paranaense(home)3-1Serie A
Sep 2, 2026Atletico-MG(away)1-2Copa Do Brasil

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Gremio win, 1 draw, 4 Cruzeiro wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 18, 2026Cruzeiro 2-0 GremioSerie A
Nov 5, 2025Gremio 0-1 CruzeiroSerie A
Jul 13, 2025Cruzeiro 4-1 GremioSerie A
Nov 28, 2024Cruzeiro 1-1 GremioSerie A
Jul 10, 2024Gremio 0-2 CruzeiroSerie A
Aug 27, 2023Gremio 3-0 CruzeiroSerie A

Last archived meeting: Cruzeiro vs Gremio on Apr 18, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Gremio score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cruzeiro score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Gremio1.01.138/156/15
Cruzeiro1.61.1411/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Gremio sit 18th in Serie A (30 points from 29 matches) and Cruzeiro sit 4th (48 points from 29 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Cruzeiro291469444048
18Gremio297913313930

A question about Gremio vs Cruzeiro?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
The Footlab AI model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Gremio.
Where and when is Gremio vs Cruzeiro played?
Gremio vs Cruzeiro is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Arena do Grêmio, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Gremio and Cruzeiro

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