Santos vs Gremio: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, São Paulo
The Footlab AI model makes Santos the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Gremio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Santos wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,383 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santos vs Gremio?
On Elo ratings, Santos has 1,885 points and Gremio 1,809.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Santos vs Gremio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Santos
4-2-3-1- 9Gabriel Barbosa
- 28C. Oliva
- 8Gabriel Bontempo
- 48Gustavo Henrique Pereira
- 7Everton
- 32B. Rollheiser
- 23Rodinei
- 31G. Escobar
- 15Willian Arão
- 4Lucas Veríssimo
- 1Diógenes
Gremio
4-1-4-1- 95Carlos Vinícius
- 20M. Villasanti
- 7C. Pavón
- 9F. Amuzu
- 15Danilo Barbosa
- 10F. Krovinović
- 82Wallace
- 4W. Kannemann
- 27Diego Caito
- 23Marlon
- 1Weverton
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santos have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Gremio have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 2-4 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Remo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Santos wins, 1 draw, 3 Gremio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Gremio 3-2 Santos | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Santos 1-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| May 4, 2025 | Gremio 1-0 Santos | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Santos 2-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Gremio 1-0 Santos | Serie A |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Santos 1-0 Gremio | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Santos score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gremio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Gremio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santos sit 8th in Serie A (42 points from 30 matches) and Gremio sit 18th (31 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 45 | 42 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 40 | 31 |
A question about Santos vs Gremio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santos vs Gremio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Santos the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Gremio.
- Where and when is Santos vs Gremio played?
- Santos vs Gremio is played on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.