Match

Fluminense vs Santos: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro

FluminenseSantos

The Footlab AI model makes Fluminense the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Santos. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fluminense wins, the most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fluminense vs Santos?

On Elo ratings, Fluminense has 1,889 points and Santos 1,865.

59%23%18%
Fluminense winDrawSantos win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Fluminense vs Santos

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Fluminense

4-2-3-1
  1. 7Hulk
  1. 8Martinelli
  2. 17A. Canobbio
  3. 16Nonato
  4. 32L. Acosta
  5. 30Y. Soteldo
  1. 29J. Millán
  2. 13Guilherme Arana
  3. 2Samuel Xavier
  4. 3Thiago Silva
  1. 1Fábio

Santos

4-2-3-1
  1. 9Gabriel Barbosa
  1. 28C. Oliva
  2. 8Gabriel Bontempo
  3. 48Gustavo Henrique Pereira
  4. 7Everton
  5. 32B. Rollheiser
  1. 23Rodinei
  2. 31G. Escobar
  3. 15Willian Arão
  4. 4Lucas Veríssimo
  1. 1Diógenes

Known absences

  • NeymarOut · Calf injury

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:41 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fluminense have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Santos have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fluminense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Flamengo(away)0-1Serie A
Oct 9, 2026Coritiba(home)4-0Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Corinthians(away)3-1Serie A
Sep 15, 2026Platense(away)1-2CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 12, 2026Atletico-MG(away)1-3Serie A
Santos
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Atletico-MG(away)1-2Serie A
Oct 8, 2026Flamengo(home)2-2Serie A
Oct 2, 2026Sao Paulo(away)2-1Serie A
Sep 19, 2026Remo(away)2-1Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Atletico-MG(away)2-4CONMEBOL Sudamericana

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Fluminense wins, 2 draws, 0 Santos wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 19, 2026Santos 2-3 FluminenseSerie A
Aug 31, 2025Santos 0-0 FluminenseSerie A
Apr 13, 2025Fluminense 1-0 SantosSerie A
Nov 29, 2023Santos 0-3 FluminenseSerie A
Jul 29, 2023Fluminense 1-0 SantosSerie A
Aug 1, 2022Santos 2-2 FluminenseSerie A

Last archived meeting: Santos vs Fluminense on Apr 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Fluminense score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Santos score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Fluminense1.51.259/158/15
Santos1.51.259/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fluminense sit 4th in Serie A (51 points from 30 matches) and Santos sit 8th (42 points from 30 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Fluminense301497483751
8Santos3011910464542

A question about Fluminense vs Santos?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fluminense vs Santos?
The Footlab AI model makes Fluminense the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Santos.
Where and when is Fluminense vs Santos played?
Fluminense vs Santos is played on October 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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