Match

Atletico-MG vs Coritiba: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais

Atletico-MGCoritiba

The Footlab AI model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Coritiba. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico-MG wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?

On Elo ratings, Atletico-MG has 1,890 points and Coritiba 1,794.

57%23%20%
Atletico-MG winDrawCoritiba win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1
  1. 19Reinier
  1. 11Bernard
  2. 28T. Cuello
  3. 7Fred
  4. 8Maycon
  5. 39Mamady Cisse
  1. 2Natanael
  2. 14Vitor Hugo
  3. 6Renan Lodi
  4. 13Lyanco
  1. 1Gabriel Delfim

Coritiba

4-2-3-1
  1. 32Pedro Rocha
  1. 19S. Gómez
  2. 7J. Lavega
  3. 21Thiago Santos
  4. 10Josué
  5. 77Breno Lopes
  1. 26Bruno Melo
  2. 23Tiago Cóser
  3. 55Jacy
  4. 44João Pedro Chermont
  1. 1Pedro Luccas

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico-MG have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Coritiba have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atletico-MG
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026RB Bragantino(home)1-0Serie A
Sep 19, 2026Chapecoense-sc(home)1-1Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Santos(home)4-2CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Sep 12, 2026Fluminense(home)3-1Serie A
Sep 9, 2026Santos(away)0-2CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Coritiba
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 19, 2026Vasco DA Gama(away)0-5Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Atletico Paranaense(home)3-3Serie A
Sep 6, 2026Mirassol(home)1-2Serie A
Aug 31, 2026Remo(away)3-2Serie A
Aug 23, 2026Corinthians(home)2-1Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atletico-MG wins, 1 draw, 2 Coritiba wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 19, 2026Coritiba 2-0 Atletico-MGSerie A
Oct 8, 2023Atletico-MG 1-2 CoritibaSerie A
May 20, 2023Coritiba 1-2 Atletico-MGSerie A
Aug 14, 2022Coritiba 0-1 Atletico-MGSerie A
Apr 24, 2022Atletico-MG 2-2 CoritibaSerie A
Dec 26, 2020Atletico-MG 2-0 CoritibaSerie A

Last archived meeting: Coritiba vs Atletico-MG on Apr 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atletico-MG score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Coritiba score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atletico-MG1.51.058/157/15
Coritiba1.41.929/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atletico-MG sit 7th in Serie A (43 points from 28 matches) and Coritiba sit 9th (38 points from 28 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Atletico-MG281279373243
9Coritiba2810810374338

A question about Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Coritiba.
Where and when is Atletico-MG vs Coritiba played?
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Arena MRV, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Atletico-MG and Coritiba

Ready to know everything about football?