Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 38Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Vasco DA Gama (1,915) and Vitoria (1,948).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vasco DA Gama have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Vitoria have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 1-4 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Olimpia(away) | 4-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Santos(home) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Olimpia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bahia(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 4-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Vasco DA Gama win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Vitoria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Vitoria 1-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Vasco DA Gama 4-3 Vitoria | Serie A |
| May 10, 2025 | Vitoria 2-1 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Vitoria 0-1 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| May 12, 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Nov 11, 2021 | Vasco DA Gama 0-3 Vitoria | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama on Jul 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vasco DA Gama score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vitoria score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Vitoria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vasco DA Gama sit 19th in Serie A (22 points from 23 matches) and Vitoria sit 12th (29 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vitoria | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 35 | 29 |
| 19 | Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?
- The Footlab model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Vitoria.
- Where and when is Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria played?
- Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria is played on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio São Januário, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.