Match

Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 38Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro

Vasco DA GamaVitoria

The Footlab AI model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Vitoria. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,479 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?

On Elo ratings, Vasco DA Gama has 1,908 points and Vitoria 1,819.

66%20%14%
Vasco DA Gama winDrawVitoria win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Vasco DA Gama

4-1-4-1
  1. 19Bruno Duarte
  1. 23Thiago Mendes
  2. 22A. Lescano
  3. 9F. Colidio
  4. 11A. Gómez
  5. 5S. Sosa
  1. 30Robert Renan
  2. 4A. Saldivia
  3. 96Paulo Henrique
  4. 66Cuiabano
  1. 1Léo Jardim

Vitoria

4-2-3-1
  1. 91Rene
  1. 33Erick
  2. 95Caíque
  3. 10Matheuzinho
  4. 6E. Martínez
  5. 12D. Tarzia
  1. 36Luan Cândido
  2. 83Jamerson
  3. 98Mateusinho
  4. 25Cacá
  1. 1Lucas Arcanjo

Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:10 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vasco DA Gama have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Vitoria have 4, 1 and 10.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Vasco DA Gama
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 14, 2026Boca Juniors(away)1-0CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Oct 10, 2026Remo(home)0-0Serie A
Oct 7, 2026Botafogo(away)2-1Serie A
Sep 19, 2026Coritiba(home)5-0Serie A
Sep 15, 2026Santa Fe(home)2-0CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Vitoria
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Sao Paulo(away)1-2Serie A
Oct 7, 2026Chapecoense-sc(home)4-0Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Cruzeiro(home)1-3Serie A
Sep 13, 2026Mirassol(away)2-2Serie A
Sep 7, 2026Gremio(home)1-0Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Vasco DA Gama wins, 0 draws, 2 Vitoria wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 3, 2026Vitoria 0-2 Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
Aug 27, 2026Vasco DA Gama 1-0 VitoriaCopa Do Brasil
Jul 16, 2026Vitoria 1-0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
Oct 5, 2025Vasco DA Gama 4-3 VitoriaSerie A
May 10, 2025Vitoria 2-1 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
Sep 1, 2024Vitoria 0-1 Vasco DA GamaSerie A

Last archived meeting: Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama on Sep 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Vasco DA Gama score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Vitoria score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama1.50.885/157/15
Vitoria1.01.644/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Vasco DA Gama sit 14th in Serie A (35 points from 29 matches) and Vitoria sit 12th (36 points from 30 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
12Vitoria3010614334436
14Vasco DA Gama299812364235

A question about Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?
The Footlab AI model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Vitoria.
Where and when is Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria played?
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria is played on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio São Januário, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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