Palmeiras vs Coritiba: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 38Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Coritiba. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (2,126 vs 1,920).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Coritiba have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 4-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Palmeiras win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Coritiba win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Coritiba 0-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Jun 4, 2023 | Palmeiras 3-1 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Oct 6, 2022 | Palmeiras 4-0 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Jun 12, 2022 | Coritiba 0-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Feb 17, 2021 | Coritiba 1-0 Palmeiras | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Coritiba vs Palmeiras on Jul 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Palmeiras score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Coritiba score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Coritiba | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Palmeiras sit 1st in Serie A (51 points from 24 matches) and Coritiba sit 8th (34 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 51 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 31 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
- The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Coritiba.
- Where and when is Palmeiras vs Coritiba played?
- Palmeiras vs Coritiba is played on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.