Bahia vs Atletico-MG: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 38Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Atletico-MG. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bahia wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,800 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Bahia (1,870) and Atletico-MG (1,921).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bahia vs Atletico-MG
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bahia
4-3-3- 9A. Véliz
- 16Erick Pulga
- 99C. Olivera
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 6Jean Lucas
- 5N. Acevedo
- 33David Duarte
- 46Luciano Juba
- 44Marcos Victor
- 3Marco Moreno
- 1Ronaldo
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1- 18T. Borbas
- 5Alexsander
- 39Mamady Cisse
- 17Igor Gomes
- 27A. Minda
- 11Bernard
- 2Natanael
- 14Vitor Hugo
- 36K. Pascini
- 3Léo Duarte
- 1Gabriel Delfim
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahia have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Atletico-MG have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Atletico Torque(home) | 3-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Santos(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 3, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bahia wins, 2 draws, 1 Atletico-MG win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Atletico-MG 1-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Atletico-MG 3-0 Bahia | Serie A |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Bahia 2-1 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Bahia 3-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Atletico-MG 1-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Dec 7, 2023 | Bahia 4-1 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Bahia score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico-MG score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Atletico-MG | 1.6 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bahia sit 7th in Serie A (49 points from 31 matches) and Atletico-MG sit 6th (50 points from 31 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 39 | 49 |
A question about Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Atletico-MG.
- Where and when is Bahia vs Atletico-MG played?
- Bahia vs Atletico-MG is played on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Fonte Nova, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.