Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 38Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, Paraná
The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Sao Paulo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Atletico Paranaense (1,997) and Sao Paulo (1,927).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Paranaense have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Sao Paulo have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bolívar(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico Paranaense win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Sao Paulo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Sao Paulo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Sao Paulo | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Sao Paulo 2-1 Atletico Paranaense | Copa Do Brasil |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Sao Paulo 2-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Jul 4, 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense on Jul 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Paranaense score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sao Paulo score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Sao Paulo | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd in Serie A (41 points from 23 matches) and Sao Paulo sit 13th (27 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Sao Paulo.
- Where and when is Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo played?
- Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo is played on December 2, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena da Baixada, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.