Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Euroborg, Groningen
The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Groningen. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven starts as the favourite with a 276-point Elo edge (2,219 vs 1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groningen have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; PSV Eindhoven have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-4 | Super Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Groningen win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 PSV Eindhoven win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Groningen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Aug 23, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Groningen 1-3 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Nov 23, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 5-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Feb 11, 2023 | PSV Eindhoven 6-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Groningen score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; PSV Eindhoven score 3.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groningen sit 5th in Eredivisie (6 points from 3 matches) and PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
- The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Groningen.
- Where and when is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven played?
- Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Euroborg, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.