Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan
The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Club Queretaro. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro?
Guadalajara Chivas starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,994 vs 1,843).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guadalajara Chivas have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Club Queretaro have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 5-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toluca(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 0-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Dallas(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Guadalajara Chivas win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Club Queretaro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Club Queretaro 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Club Queretaro 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Club Queretaro 1-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guadalajara Chivas score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Club Queretaro score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Club Queretaro | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guadalajara Chivas sit 12th in Liga MX (4 points from 3 matches) and Club Queretaro sit 7th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Queretaro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro?
- The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Club Queretaro.
- Where and when is Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro played?
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro is played on September 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.