Club Tijuana vs Atlas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Caliente, Tijuana
The Footlab model makes Club Tijuana the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Atlas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Club Tijuana vs Atlas?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Club Tijuana (1,899) and Atlas (1,871).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Club Tijuana have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Atlas have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(away) | 2-5 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cruz Azul(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | San Diego(away) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Austin(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Club Tijuana win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Atlas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Atlas 2-1 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Club Tijuana 2-0 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Mar 10, 2025 | Club Tijuana 3-4 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Nov 25, 2024 | Club Tijuana 3-0 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Atlas 0-0 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Atlas 0-0 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Club Tijuana score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atlas score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Atlas | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Club Tijuana sit 2nd in Liga MX (7 points from 3 matches) and Atlas sit 9th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Atlas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | Club Tijuana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Club Tijuana vs Atlas?
- The Footlab model makes Club Tijuana the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Atlas.
- Where and when is Club Tijuana vs Atlas played?
- Club Tijuana vs Atlas is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Caliente, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.