Necaxa vs Club America: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 10Kick-off on September 28, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
The Footlab model makes Club America the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Necaxa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Necaxa vs Club America?
Club America starts as the favourite with a 170-point Elo edge (2,017 vs 1,848).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Necaxa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Club America have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Juarez(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 3-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Austin(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | San Diego(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Necaxa win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Club America win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Club America 2-0 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Necaxa 1-1 Club America | Liga MX |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Club America 2-3 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Necaxa 1-1 Club America | Liga MX |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Necaxa 0-0 Club America | Liga MX |
| Aug 24, 2023 | Club America 3-2 Necaxa | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Club America vs Necaxa on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Necaxa score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Club America score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Club America | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Necaxa sit 8th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Club America sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 1 | Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Necaxa vs Club America?
- The Footlab model makes Club America the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Necaxa.
- Where and when is Necaxa vs Club America played?
- Necaxa vs Club America is played on September 28, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Victoria, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.