Cruz Azul vs Toluca: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 10Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Toluca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Cruz Azul (2,040) and Toluca (2,062).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruz Azul have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Toluca have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Club Tijuana(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chicago Fire(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | New York City FC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cruz Azul win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Toluca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Toluca 1-3 Cruz Azul | Campeón de Campeones |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Toluca 2-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Cruz Azul 1-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Toluca 0-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Cruz Azul score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruz Azul sit 6th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Toluca sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
- The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Toluca.
- Where and when is Cruz Azul vs Toluca played?
- Cruz Azul vs Toluca is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Banorte, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.