Cruz Azul vs Toluca: result 3-3 and analysis
Liga MXApertura - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 10:50 PM (UTC)Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Full time
What was the result of Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Cruz Azul and Toluca drew 3-3 on September 26, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 7′N. IbáñezCruz Azul
- 38′G. FernándezCruz Azul
- 55′HelinhoToluca (pen.)
- 56′A. VegaToluca
- 78′A. VegaToluca
- 90′G. FernándezCruz Azul
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Cruz Azul win at 37%: prediction missed. Most likely score announced: 1-1. Actual score: 3-3.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Cruz Azul vs Toluca
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Cruz Azul
5-3-2- 21G. Fernández
- 7N. Ibáñez
- 19C. Rodríguez
- 20J. Paradela
- 8A. Palavecino
- 3O. Campos
- 5J. Orozco
- 33G. Piovi
- 4W. Ditta
- 2A. Mozo
- 1A. Gudiño
Toluca
4-2-3-1- 26Paulinho
- 9A. Vega
- 15P. Pérez
- 11Helinho
- 8N. Castro
- 2D. Barbosa
- 17B. García
- 6F. Pereira
- 13Luan
- 4B. Méndez
- 22L. García
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruz Azul have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; Toluca have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 0-2 | Campeones Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Club America(home) | 4-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Necaxa(away) | 3-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 5-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Leon(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cruz Azul wins, 3 draws, 0 Toluca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Toluca 1-3 Cruz Azul | Campeón de Campeones |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Toluca 2-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Cruz Azul 1-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Toluca 0-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Cruz Azul score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Toluca score 2.1 and concede 0.9.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Toluca | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruz Azul sit 2nd in Liga MX (26 points from 14 matches) and Toluca sit 5th (23 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 26 |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 23 |
A question about Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy