Match

Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL: prediction and stats

Liga MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan

Guadalajara ChivasTigres UANL

The Footlab AI model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Tigres UANL. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guadalajara Chivas wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?

A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Guadalajara Chivas (2,013) and Tigres UANL (1,960).

49%25%26%
Guadalajara Chivas winDrawTigres UANL win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Guadalajara Chivas

3-4-2-1
  1. 17R. Marín
  1. 28R. González
  2. 6O. Govea
  3. 30Santiago Sandoval
  4. 46R. Alvarado
  5. 14H. Camberos
  6. 11B. Gutiérrez
  1. 23D. Aguirre
  2. 7L. Romo
  3. 3D. Campillo
  1. 1J. Rangel

Tigres UANL

4-2-3-1
  1. 17R. Aguirre
  1. 11J. Brunetta
  2. 8F. Gorriarán
  3. 21R. Monreal
  4. 16D. Lainez
  5. 77O. Herrera
  1. 15A. Franco
  2. 28Joaquim
  3. 19M. Laínez
  4. 30D. Sánchez
  1. 1N. Guzmán

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guadalajara Chivas have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Tigres UANL have 2, 8 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Guadalajara Chivas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 5, 2026Club America(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 26, 2026Club Queretaro(home)0-2Liga MX
Sep 20, 2026Club America(away)2-2Liga MX
Sep 14, 2026U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home)3-0Liga MX
Sep 5, 2026Atletico San Luis(away)3-0Liga MX
Tigres UANL
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 27, 2026Puebla(home)1-0Liga MX
Sep 19, 2026FC Juarez(away)0-2Liga MX
Sep 13, 2026Monterrey(away)0-0Liga MX
Sep 6, 2026Necaxa(home)1-1Liga MX
Aug 30, 2026Santos Laguna(away)0-0Liga MX

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Guadalajara Chivas win, 3 draws, 2 Tigres UANL wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 10, 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
May 3, 2026Tigres UANL 3-1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Apr 11, 2026Tigres UANL 4-1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Sep 18, 2025Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
Jan 26, 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
Aug 25, 2024Tigres UANL 1-1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX

Last archived meeting: Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL on May 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Guadalajara Chivas score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tigres UANL score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Guadalajara Chivas1.51.057/156/15
Tigres UANL0.91.258/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Guadalajara Chivas sit 3rd in Liga MX (18 points from 10 matches) and Tigres UANL sit 15th (10 points from 10 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Guadalajara Chivas10532171018
15Tigres UANL10244101310

A question about Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
The Footlab AI model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Tigres UANL.
Where and when is Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL played?
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga MX.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL

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