Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan
The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Tigres UANL. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Guadalajara Chivas (1,994) and Tigres UANL (1,976).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guadalajara Chivas have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Tigres UANL have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 5-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlas(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Guadalajara Chivas win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Tigres UANL win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| May 3, 2026 | Tigres UANL 3-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Tigres UANL 4-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Tigres UANL 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guadalajara Chivas score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tigres UANL score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Tigres UANL | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guadalajara Chivas sit 12th in Liga MX (4 points from 3 matches) and Tigres UANL sit 16th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 4 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
- The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Tigres UANL.
- Where and when is Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL played?
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.