Necaxa vs Atlas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
The Footlab model makes Necaxa the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Atlas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Necaxa vs Atlas?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Necaxa (1,848) and Atlas (1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Necaxa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Atlas have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Necaxa win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Atlas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Atlas 0-0 Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Necaxa 0-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Atlas 5-3 Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Atlas 3-2 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Atlas 0-4 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Atlas 1-2 Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Necaxa score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atlas score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Atlas | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Necaxa sit 8th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Atlas sit 9th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atlas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Necaxa vs Atlas?
- The Footlab model makes Necaxa the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Atlas.
- Where and when is Necaxa vs Atlas played?
- Necaxa vs Atlas is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Victoria, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.