Necaxa vs Atlas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
The Footlab AI model makes Necaxa the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Atlas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Necaxa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Necaxa vs Atlas?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Necaxa (1,824) and Atlas (1,872).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Necaxa vs Atlas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Necaxa
4-1-4-1- 9J. Carranza
- 16P. Pedraza
- 21M. Espíndola
- 13Owen de Jesús González Ojeda
- 6D. Leyva
- 99M. Rodríguez
- 3A. Oliveros
- 88C. Vargas
- 15D. Ochoa
- 5Kaiky Naves
- 12L. Jiménez
Atlas
3-4-2-1- 9F. Monzón
- 10Luís Esteves
- 15Paulo Ramírez
- 18E. Montiel
- 3J. Sánchez
- 8R. Mmaee
- 20K. Zenón
- 44J. Purata
- 16M. Valenzuela
- 19A. Frías
- 12C. Vargas
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Necaxa have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Atlas have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | CF Pachuca(away) | 3-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Club America(home) | 2-4 | Liga MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(away) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Club Tijuana(away) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Toluca(away) | 2-5 | Liga MX |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Necaxa wins, 1 draw, 3 Atlas wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Atlas 0-0 Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Necaxa 0-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Atlas 5-3 Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Atlas 3-2 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Atlas 0-4 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Atlas 1-2 Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Necaxa score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atlas score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Atlas | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Necaxa sit 17th in Liga MX (9 points from 11 matches) and Atlas sit 6th (18 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 9 |
A question about Necaxa vs Atlas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Necaxa vs Atlas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Necaxa the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Atlas.
- Where and when is Necaxa vs Atlas played?
- Necaxa vs Atlas is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Victoria, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.