Leon vs Club America: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio León (Nou Camp), León de los Aldamas
The Footlab model makes Club America the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Leon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leon vs Club America?
Club America starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (2,039 vs 1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leon have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Club America have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Necaxa(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 3-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Juarez(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 3-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Austin(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | San Diego(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Leon win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Club America win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Leon 2-3 Club America | Liga MX |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Club America 2-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Club America 1-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Leon 1-1 Club America | Liga MX |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Leon 0-1 Club America | Liga MX |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Club America 2-0 Leon | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Leon score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Club America score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Club America | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leon sit 14th in Liga MX (3 points from 3 matches) and Club America sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 1 | Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leon vs Club America?
- The Footlab model makes Club America the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Leon.
- Where and when is Leon vs Club America played?
- Leon vs Club America is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio León (Nou Camp), in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.